Caixin Futures: Middle East tensions boost risk aversion, non-ferrous and precious metals sectors generally fluctuate with a strong bias

⑴ The military strikes launched by the United States and Israel against Iran have significantly escalated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, triggering a resurgence of risk aversion and pushing the market into a "risk pricing" mode in the short term. Additionally, the turmoil has increased shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with rising oil prices, impacting global copper supply and logistics costs. Furthermore, Trump is pushing for the Supreme Court to review his tariff policies, and trade policy uncertainty remains. Despite a fundamentally loose environment and high inventories, copper prices are still more likely to rise than fall under these circumstances.⑵ On the macro front, the escalation of geopolitical conflicts has triggered risk aversion, with non-ferrous metals running strongly alongside gold prices. Fundamentally, zinc ingot supply and demand are both weak during the off-season, but considering the market sentiment fluctuations caused by geopolitical conflicts, zinc prices are expected to remain strong and volatile.⑶ Precious metals: The significant escalation of tensions in the Middle East has triggered a resurgence of risk aversion, and the market has entered a "risk pricing" mode. As the ultimate safe-haven asset, gold's financial attributes have been activated, with funds flowing from risk assets to gold to hedge against war risks, potentially further raising the price center of gold. Silver, which possesses both financial attributes and characteristics of physical shortage, will see its volatility further amplified, and subsequent prices may continue to fluctuate sharply. Traders need to strictly control their positions.⑷ Lithium carbonate: The current May contract is fluctuating within the range of 164,000-179,500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to adopt a range-based strategy, waiting for a price pullback of about 7,000 points (0.5 times ATR) to the lower edge of the range before buying, and patiently waiting for the third upward gap before shorting. From the perspective of price patterns and positions, although the current price is close to the previous high area of 180,000, the position volume has not changed significantly, which is different from the previous round where position volume dropped sharply at the high point and triggered a trend decline. This indicates that the market's bullish and bearish divergence is not yet fully clear, and the pressure of the M-top pattern has not been effectively confirmed, so the short-term range-bound pattern is likely to continue. In terms of volatility, the overall trend of lithium carbonate is similar to tin prices, while intraday fluctuations are more influenced by copper prices. It is worth noting that the current price has shown signs of being insensitive to bullish news, and prices above 190,000 yuan/ton face dual pressures from negative demand feedback and potential regulatory policies, with most off-market funds adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Overall, unless there is a directional change in position volume, lithium carbonate is likely to continue range-bound fluctuations in the short term. Investors are advised to pay attention to breakthroughs at the upper and lower edges of the range and changes in position volume, and to respond with a strategy of selling high and buying low for now.