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Inflation trades make a comeback as eurozone short-term government bond yields rebound sharply

Inflation trades make a comeback as eurozone short-term government bond yields rebound sharply

汇通财经汇通财经2026/03/02 12:50
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⑴ On Monday, short-term government bond yields in the eurozone rebounded strongly, departing from multi-month lows. The yield on Germany's two-year government bonds, which is most sensitive to interest rate expectations, rose by about 3 basis points at the end of trading, reaching 2.0443%, completely reversing the earlier decline caused by safe-haven buying at the start of the session. ⑵ The core logic driving this trend is the market's repricing of the prolonged Middle East conflict. With no signs of easing between US and Iran attacks, Trump hinted that the hostilities could last for four weeks. Analysts pointed out that although investors have become accustomed to viewing geopolitical risks as ongoing uncertainties, the current surge in energy prices is intensifying the transmission pressure on inflation. ⑶ Data shows that European natural gas futures soared 35% in a single day, while Brent crude oil rose by more than 7%. The key indicator for long-term inflation expectations in the eurozone has jumped to 2.1029%, significantly higher than last Friday's level. This supply-driven price shock is forcing the market to reassess the European Central Bank's policy trajectory. ⑷ Bets on interest rate cuts within the year in the interest rate futures market have slightly retreated to around 21%. Economists at Nomura pointed out that although the European Central Bank's perspective is more medium-term oriented, the current volatility in oil prices will have a full impact on the real economy before then. The crucial test will be the eurozone's February inflation data released on Tuesday, which will provide the latest clues for this geopolitical-driven game between inflation and growth.
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