Bitunix Analyst: Middle East Escalation, BTC Faces 'Digital Gold' Stress Test

BlockBeats News, March 2nd. The US and Israel launched a large-scale military operation against Iran, entering the 3rd day of conflict. Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea shipping is either blocked or disrupted, and oil tanker transportation has slowed significantly. The US has not yet discussed releasing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), with the market interpreting this as Washington's assessment that oil prices are still within a manageable range. Several investment banks have speculated on oil price scenarios: if the strait remains closed for an extended period, Brent oil may surpass $100; if the conflict is quickly resolved, the risk premium may see a temporary pullback.

On a macro level, a pattern of "inflation overlaid with geopolitical risk" is emerging. The US January PPI increased by 0.5% month-on-month, higher than expected, with a core year-on-year increase of 3.4%, indicating persistent upstream price pressures that constrain the Fed's room for rate cuts. If oil prices continue to rise, it will create a secondary disturbance to inflation expectations and interest rate trajectories. Short-term capital flows are heading towards gold and the US dollar, US Treasury bond volatility is increasing, and risk assets face repricing.

In the crypto market, the $67,800–$69,500 range above BTC is a high-density short position zone, while the $64,000–$65,000 range below has significant long position support accumulation. The price is currently fluctuating around $66,000, experiencing liquidity tug-of-war within the range. If the conflict escalates and boosts safe-haven demand, whether BTC can break above the liquidation zone and establish a trend extension will determine whether it is redefined by the market as "digital gold"; conversely, if it retreats and tests the $64,000 support again, it will still lean towards being a high-volatility risk asset.

In summary, this is not merely a geopolitical event trade but a pressure test on BTC's narrative positioning. The key lies not in short-term fluctuations but in whether funds choose to incorporate it into their core hedging allocation during a period of heightened risk.