Ethereum delays before a possible new cycle

Ethereum is going through a lean period. After a plunge of more than 31% in one month, the second largest crypto in the world seems doomed to stall. And according to a leading analyst, this lull could last.

An Ether under pressure, but risks already absorbed

Pav Hundal, lead analyst at Swyftx, was the first to make the diagnosis last Thursday in a statement to Cointelegraph. According to him, Ether has already priced in the bulk of short-term macroeconomic and sector uncertainties.

“I would not be surprised at all if ETH remains quite calm over the next few weeks“, he states bluntly.

Geopolitical tensions around Iran, as well as legislative advances linked to the American CLARITY law, are now reflected in the price. In other words, the market has already digested this news. Without new catalysts, a significant bullish impulse is hard to imagine.

What weighs more heavily is the trauma left by the wave of liquidations in October. Within a few weeks, $19 billion left the market. A brutal shock that caused investor confidence to drop to levels comparable to those of the 2022 crisis.

ETH today shows a decline of 56.8% compared to its October peak, then about $4,687.

Consumer morale, the real forgotten subject

Pav Hundal points to a blind spot often ignored in market analyses: consumer morale. “For me, it is the major issue that nobody really talks about“, he insists. 

Too many investors wonder about the next source of liquidity, without paying attention to the psychological state of the retail market.

The Crypto Fear & Greed index confirms this unease. On Friday, it showed a score of 13, a level of “extreme fear,” a sign that retail investors are staying sheltered.

However, institutions do not share this reluctance. BitMine Immersion Technologies, the largest ETH treasury company, recently acquired 45,759 additional ETH, bringing its total balance to 4.37 million ETH, about 3.62% of the circulating supply. A strong strategic accumulation signal, counter to the prevailing sentiment.

Medium term, Hundal anticipates a scenario that “will test even the most experienced investors“. However, he is closely watching the ETH/BTC ratio, up 3.58% over seven days: if ETH starts to outperform bitcoin, “things could become potentially explosive,” he warns.

In the background, Ethereum is silently preparing the Glamsterdam update for the first half of 2026, promising major improvements in scalability and user experience, a potential catalyst to watch over the medium term.

Ether is playing for time. Technical fundamentals are improving, institutions are accumulating, and immediate risks seem absorbed. However, without a clear trigger, consolidation is likely to stretch out. Patience and vigilance remain the watchwords.