Prediction markets challenge Draftkings revenue

Federally regulated prediction market platforms are now contesting nearly a quarter of DraftKings sportsbook revenue, signalling a shift in the competitive dynamics of the US sports betting market.

According to analysis cited by the Financial Times, Kalshi generates an estimated $1.3 billion in annualised sports-related revenue, approaching one-quarter of DraftKings’ sportsbook segment.

Sports-related contracts now account for roughly 90% of Kalshi’s platform fees, as monthly active users surged from about 600,000 at the start of 2025 to more than 5.1 million by early 2026.

Overall prediction market trading volume reached $63.5 billion in 2025, up from $15.8 billion in 2024, while the broader US sports gambling market is valued at approximately $14 billion annually.

Prediction markets are estimated to be diverting around $8 billion in activity from traditional sportsbooks, with $630 million wagered via exchanges during the Super Bowl alone, representing 80% of year-over-year growth.

DraftKings reported $6.05 billion in full-year 2025 revenue, up 27%, but its 2026 guidance of $6.5 billion to $6.9 billion fell short of analyst expectations near $7.2 billion, contributing to a 13.5% drop in its share price.