Rate Cut: Pause or Done Deal, Fed 2026 Rate Path Outlook

BlockBeats News, January 28th, according to CME FedWatch data, ahead of tonight's rate decision announcement, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is only 2.8%, with a 97.2% probability of a rate pause. Furthermore, the market is starting to worry whether the Fed will enter a long wait-and-see period after this "on-hold" pause, and whether the rate cut pause will quietly morph into a rate cut ended.

Current data shows that by the end of 2026, the probability of no further rate cuts for the whole year is 10.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut for the whole year is 28.8%, a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 33%, a cumulative 75 basis point rate cut is 19.8%, a cumulative 100 basis point rate cut is 6.8%, and a cumulative 125 basis point rate cut is 1.3%.