US CPI data is moderate; gold and silver fall due to profit-taking

　　

　　On Thursday (December 18) during the US trading session, US inflation data came in far below market expectations. Boosted by this, gold prices reversed the previous night's decline, hitting a two-month high during the session, and silver prices also rebounded. However, due to routine profit-taking by short-term futures traders, both metals ultimately closed lower. February gold futures fell by $8.3 during the session

　　Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 rose 2.7% year-on-year, the lowest level since July, not only below the market expectation of 3.1% but also lower than September’s 3.0% year-on-year increase. Meanwhile, the core inflation rate (excluding food and energy prices) rose 2.6% year-on-year, the lowest since March 2021, also below the expected 3.0%. Due to the US government shutdown, the Bureau was unable to collect October 2025 data, resulting in a missing CPI report for October, and November’s monthly data was not released. However, the Bureau stated that the CPI cumulatively rose by 0.2% over the two months from September to November. The latest CPI data has undoubtedly provided strong support for the dovish camp within the Federal Reserve, as these officials advocate for further rate cuts. Expectations of rate cuts typically benefit precious metals while putting pressure on the US dollar exchange rate.

　　It is worth noting that the unexpected decline in US CPI not only drove a rebound in gold prices but also significantly raised market expectations for US Federal Reserve easing policies in 2026. Traders now anticipate two rate cuts next year, with US interest rate futures pricing in a total decrease of about 62 basis points for 2026. However, the market still generally expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged at the January meeting, with the CME FedWatch tool showing only a 28.8% probability of a rate cut that month.

　　

slightly declined; crude oil prices stabilized, currently quoted around $56.50 per barrel; the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note fell after the CPI data release, now at 4.116%. The weak dollar further supported precious metal prices,

　　Escalating tensions between the US and Venezuela have led to an inflow of safe-haven funds. At the same time, developments related to changes in the Federal Reserve leadership have also attracted close market attention. US President Trump has repeatedly called for rate cuts, raising questions about the Fed’s independence. On Wednesday, Trump said: “I will soon announce the next Fed Chair, who favors significant rate cuts.” Last week he revealed his preference for appointing White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett or former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to the position; media also reported on Tuesday that Fed governor Christopher Waller would be interviewed for the job. On Wednesday, Waller said that policymakers are not in a hurry to ease policy significantly, believing that with inflation still above target, the Fed can proceed cautiously and that rates could gradually fall to a neutral level (which he estimates is 50-100 basis points below current levels).

　　US labor market data showed mixed signals: initial jobless claims fell to 224,000, slightly below the expected 225,000 and down from the previous 237,000; continuing claims rose to 1.897 million, below the expected 1.94 million but higher than the previous 1.83 million; four-week average rose slightly from 217,000 to 217,500.

　　Goldman Sachs expects further room for gold to rise in 2026. The Goldman Sachs Research Department stated that the momentum that drove gold futures to record highs in 2025 could continue next year. In its 2026 outlook released Thursday, the bank said, “The base case scenario of a 14% increase in gold prices to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026 faces upside risk.” Central bank demand for gold is expected to persist into next year, with Goldman Sachs estimating central banks will buy an average of 70 tons of gold per month, driven by geopolitical turmoil and a desire to hedge related risks. In terms of immediate market performance, the most actively traded gold futures fell 0.3% to $4,358 per ounce, after having risen for most of the morning session.