Experienced Analyst Predicts When Bitcoin’s Decline Will Stop

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez, in his analysis of Bitcoin’s current market cycle, pointed out a striking timing similarity to past cycles.

According to Martinez, Bitcoin’s major market cycles follow a fairly consistent rhythm in terms of both duration and correction depth.

According to the analyst, historical data shows that it takes an average of approximately 1,064 days for Bitcoin to reach a peak from a low point, while the time it takes to fall to the next low after that peak is an average of 364 days. Martinez stated that this pattern has repeated itself in three main cycles to date, and argued that the current cycle follows the same structure.

In the first cycle, Bitcoin reached its peak in December 2017 from its January 2015 low in exactly 1,064 days. The ensuing bear market lasted 364 days, with a new low forming in December 2018. In the second cycle, it took another 1,064 days to reach its peak in November 2021 from the December 2018 low. Following this peak, a 364-day correction period resulted in Bitcoin hitting a low of approximately $15,500 in November 2022.

Martinez noted that a similar pattern is emerging in the current cycle. According to him, Bitcoin reached its November 2022 low and its peak of around $126,200 in October 2025, again in 1,064 days. Based on this data, the analyst stated that Bitcoin is currently within a 364-day correction window, and this process points to a possible market bottom around October 2026. He argued that this date corresponds to approximately 288 days from today.

On the other hand, Martinez also drew attention to price pullbacks in previous bear markets. Recalling that the 2017–2018 bear market saw an 84% decline and the 2021–2022 bear market saw a 77% decline, the analyst stated that the average of these two periods indicates a pullback of approximately 80%. He suggested that if this scenario repeats itself, the next market bottom could be around $37,500.