VanEck: Despite Bitcoin's Volatility in December, Bullish Signals Are Emerging

This adjustment phase may lay the foundation for a strong rally in the first quarter of next year.

Written by: Micah Zimmerman

Translated by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News

In the fourth quarter of 2025, Bitcoin experienced significant turbulence. Especially in December, the price dropped nearly 9%, and volatility soared to its highest level since April 2025. However, VanEck pointed out in its mid-December "ChainCheck" report that market liquidity is improving and speculative leverage appears to be resetting, giving long-term holders cautious optimism.

VanEck's digital asset analysts painted a complex picture in the report: although on-chain activity remains weak, the liquidity environment is improving and speculative leverage is gradually being cleared, offering a glimmer of hope for long-term investors.

The report particularly highlighted behavioral differences among different investor groups. Digital asset treasury companies continued to buy the dip, accumulating 42,000 BTC in December—the largest single-month increase since July—bringing their total holdings above the 1 million BTC mark.

In contrast, investors in Bitcoin exchange-traded products reduced their positions. This highlights a shift in the market from retail-driven speculation to corporate-level asset accumulation.

VanEck analysts also mentioned that some digital asset treasury companies are exploring new financing methods, such as raising funds through the issuance of preferred shares instead of common shares, to purchase Bitcoin and maintain operations. This reflects a more strategic, long-term approach.

On-chain data also reveals a divergence between medium- and long-term holders. Tokens held for 1 to 5 years showed significant movement, possibly due to profit-taking or portfolio adjustments; meanwhile, tokens held for more than 5 years remain largely "dormant."

VanEck interprets this as: cyclical or short-term participants are selling assets, while the most seasoned holders remain confident in Bitcoin's future.

Bitcoin Miners Face Hashrate Decline Challenges

Miners, on the other hand, are in a tough spot. VanEck data shows that the total network hashrate fell by 4% in December, marking the largest drop since April 2024. This was due to production cuts in high-hashrate regions such as Xinjiang under regulatory pressure. At the same time, the breakeven electricity cost for mainstream mining machines is also decreasing, reflecting a shrinking profit margin for miners.

However, VanEck points out that historically, a decline in hashrate may actually be a bullish contrarian indicator: after each sustained drop in hashrate, Bitcoin has often rallied in the following 90 to 180 days.

VanEck's analysis is based on its proprietary GEO framework, which evaluates Bitcoin's structural health from three dimensions: global liquidity, ecosystem leverage, and on-chain activity, rather than focusing solely on short-term price fluctuations.

From the GEO perspective, improved liquidity and increased holdings by digital asset treasury companies to some extent offset weak signals such as stagnant growth in active on-chain addresses and declining transaction fees.

The macro environment also adds complexity to Bitcoin's outlook. The US Dollar Index has fallen to a near three-month low, pushing up precious metal prices, but Bitcoin and other crypto assets remain under pressure.

However, the evolution of the financial ecosystem may bring new support. Market observers have noticed the rise of "everything exchanges," platforms dedicated to integrating stocks, cryptocurrencies, and prediction markets, and adopting AI-driven trading and settlement systems.

Just last week, Coinbase launched an "everything exchange"-like expansion, adding stock trading, prediction markets, futures, and other products. VanEck believes that from traditional brokerages to crypto-native companies, all kinds of institutions are flocking to this track to compete for market share, which in the long run is expected to enhance Bitcoin's liquidity and application value.

Bitcoin Price Volatility Remains Significant

Nevertheless, high volatility remains a hallmark of Bitcoin. Although Bitcoin has doubled in the past two years and nearly tripled in three years, the absence of the extreme booms and busts seen in previous cycles has led to more rational market expectations. In the future, Bitcoin's trend may become more stable, with mid-term investors facing smaller cyclical fluctuations rather than the dramatic ups and downs of the past.

VanEck concludes that the overall market is currently in an adjustment phase: short- and medium-term speculative activity is fading, long-term holders are steadfast, and institutional accumulation continues to increase. Coupled with miners scaling back, volatility converging, and macroeconomic dynamics, the market is currently in a period of structural rebalancing.

As 2025 draws to a close, VanEck believes Bitcoin may enter a consolidation period, reflecting the overall maturation of the market. This consolidation phase may lay the foundation for a strong rally in the first quarter of next year.