What you need to know: Galaxy Digital (GLXY)'s research division, Galaxy Research, states that overlapping macroeconomic and market risks make Bitcoin forecasts for 2026 unusually difficult. The company notes that options pricing and volatility trends indicate that Bitcoin is maturing into an investment more akin to a macro asset rather than a high-growth trade. Galaxy remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term bullish outlook, expecting that by the end of 2027, Bitcoin could reach $250,000.
Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy Digital, said that 2026 may be the most difficult year to predict for Bitcoin, even as the company maintains its long-term bullish outlook.
In a post on December 21, Thorn stated that the coming year is "too chaotic to predict," citing a mix of macro uncertainty, political risk, and uneven momentum in the crypto markets. Thorn said these comments are based on Galaxy Research's December 18 report, "26 Predictions for Crypto, Bitcoin, DeFi, and AI in 2026," which outlines the company's expectations for the crypto market and institutional adoption.
At the time of writing, Thorn noted that the broader crypto market is deeply entrenched in a bear market, and Bitcoin is struggling to re-establish sustained bullish momentum. He stated that downside risk remains until the asset clearly trades above the $100,000 to $105,000 range.
Signals from the Options Market
The derivatives market highlights this uncertainty. According to Thorn, Bitcoin options pricing suggests roughly equal probabilities for sharply divergent outcomes next year, with traders assigning similar odds to mid-2026 prices near $70,000 or $130,000, and year-end prices near $50,000 or $250,000.
The options market is widely used by institutional investors to hedge against future price risks. Such a wide range indicates that professionals are preparing for significant price swings rather than a clear directional trend.
Signs of Structural Maturity
Meanwhile, Thorn pointed to signs of structural changes beneath the surface. He noted that long-term Bitcoin volatility—a measure of how much prices swing over extended periods—has been declining. He attributes this shift in part to the growth of institutional strategies such as options overlays and yield generation programs, which tend to suppress extreme price swings.
This evolution is also evident in Bitcoin's volatility smile, which describes how option prices change at different strike price levels. Thorn said that downside protection is now priced more expensively than upside risk, a pattern more common in mature macro assets like stocks or commodities, rather than in high-growth markets.
Why a Quiet Year Might Not Matter
For Thorn, these signals help explain why a potential range-bound or "boring" 2026 would not undermine Bitcoin's long-term prospects. Even if prices slip or approach long-term technical levels such as the 200-week moving average, he expects institutional adoption and market maturity to continue.
Beyond short-term price swings, Galaxy's long-term conviction is also based on deeper institutional integration.
In its December 18 report, the company stated that a major asset allocation platform may include Bitcoin in its standard model portfolios, a move that would embed the asset in default investment strategies rather than through discretionary trading. Such inclusion would ensure steady inflows into Bitcoin throughout market cycles, reinforcing Galaxy's view that structural adoption—rather than short-term volatility—will shape outcomes in 2027 and beyond.
Thorn believes that expanded institutional access, potential monetary easing, and demand for alternatives to fiat currencies could set Bitcoin on a path to follow gold as a hedge against currency debasement. Galaxy forecasts that this flagship cryptocurrency could reach $250,000 by the end of 2027.
