When Will Bitcoin Prices Recover? Analysis Firm Explains – “The Honeymoon Period Is Coming”

Jocy, co-founder of cryptocurrency asset management company IOSG, said that current market conditions represent not the peak of a bull market, but a new era of gradual accumulation by institutional investors.

Jocy, who shared his assessment on social media, added that they are optimistic about the market’s outlook, especially for the first half of next year.

According to Jocy, while 2025 may appear on the surface to be the “darkest year” for the crypto market, it actually represents the beginning of the institutional era. Jocy notes that a radical shift in market structure is occurring during this period, yet many investors are still trying to understand the new era using the logic of old cycles. According to the data, institutional investors’ market share has risen to 24%, while individual investors’ exit from the market has reached 66%. This picture indicates an almost complete change of hands in the crypto market.

Despite Bitcoin losing 5.4% of its value annually in 2025, its all-time high of $126,080 stands out as a significant indicator of this structural transformation. Jocy stated that while individual investors are on the selling side, institutions continue to accumulate positions at high levels, considering the cycle rather than the price level itself. Therefore, he argued that the current process is not a bull market peak, but rather a clear “period of institutional accumulation.”

Regarding the macroeconomic framework for the upcoming period, attention was drawn to the midterm elections to be held in November 2026. Jocy noted that historically, in election years, politics often overshadow decisions, arguing that investment logic should be shaped accordingly. Therefore, the first half of 2026 could be a relatively relaxed “honeymoon period” in terms of politics, with institutional allocations expected to support the market. In the second half of the year, however, increased political uncertainty is predicted to raise volatility.

However, it was also noted that the risks have not completely disappeared. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, the strong dollar outlook, potential delays in regulatory changes related to market structure, long-term bond sales, and uncertainties surrounding the election results were listed among the main risk factors. But Jocy stated that widespread pessimism in the markets often presents opportunities for long-term positioning.

Price expectations were also shared according to time horizons. In the short term, i.e., the next 3-6 months, it was stated that Bitcoin is likely to fluctuate between $87,000 and $95,000 and that institutional accumulation is likely to continue. In the medium term, it was stated that the $120,000-$150,000 range could be targeted in the first half of 2026 with the impact of policy support and institutional demand. In the long term, it was predicted that volatility could increase in the second half of 2026 depending on the election results and policy continuity.

According to Jocy, the current cycle is not an end, but a new beginning. 2025 is described as a turning point where the institutionalization process of the crypto market accelerates. Despite falling prices, the inflow of approximately $25 billion through ETFs indicates strong expectations, especially for the first half of 2026. The largest supply shift, the clearest institutional allocation intentions, the most significant policy support, and the most comprehensive infrastructure developments have all occurred during this period.

In the long term, it is stated that the improved ETF infrastructure and increasing regulatory clarity are creating a solid foundation for the next upward wave. Jocy argued that when the market structure changes fundamentally, the old valuation logic becomes invalid and the new pricing power is rebuilt upon this new structure.