- XRP remains capped below a dominant descending trendline and the 50–200 EMA cluster, keeping the broader structure bearish.
- Spot flows stay negative with $5.6M in outflows, limiting follow-through despite short-term stabilization near $2.
- ETF inflows exceed $20M in a single session, but price needs a daily close above $2.15 to confirm a trend shift.
XRP trades near $2.04 at press time after stabilizing above short-term support following a prolonged downtrend. Buyers are attempting to build a base, but the market remains pinned below a dominant descending trendline that has capped every rally. The next move depends on whether ETF inflows can translate into real price acceptance above resistance.
Trendline Still Defines The Market
Source: TradingView
On the daily chart, XRP remains locked beneath a well-defined descending trendline. Each approach to that slope has been rejected, confirming that sellers continue to defend it consistently.
Price trades below the 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs, which are stacked between $2.09 and $2.45. This EMA cluster has acted as a ceiling for months. Until XRP reclaims that zone, upside attempts remain corrective rather than trend-forming.
The Supertrend on the daily timeframe remains bearish, reinforcing the idea that momentum has not flipped. While volatility has compressed, the broader structure still favors sellers.
That said, the pace of the downside has slowed. XRP is no longer making aggressive lower lows, suggesting selling pressure is easing rather than accelerating.
Intraday Break Above Trendline Lacks Follow Through
Source: TradingView
Shorter timeframes show an early attempt to challenge the downtrend. On the 30-minute chart, XRP briefly pushed above the intraday descending trendline before stalling near $2.05.
Momentum indicators reflect cautious optimism. RSI holds above 55, signaling improving demand, while MACD has crossed into positive territory. However, volume remains light. The breakout attempt has not drawn aggressive participation.
This keeps the move vulnerable. Without a volume expansion, intraday strength risks fading back into the range. The $2.06 to $2.08 zone remains immediate resistance. A clean hold above that area would be needed to build momentum toward higher levels.
Spot Flows Still Lean Negative
Source: Coinglass
Spot market data continues to show pressure. The latest daily netflow print shows roughly $5.6 million in outflows, extending a broader trend of distribution rather than accumulation.
XRP has struggled to sustain rallies during periods of persistent spot outflows. Even when the price stabilizes, the lack of spot demand limits upside follow-through. Until spot flows flip consistently positive, rallies remain fragile. Buyers are present, but not aggressive.
ETF Inflows Change The Narrative But Not The Chart Yet
Source: SoSoValue
U.S. spot XRP ETFs recorded a daily net inflow of roughly $20.17 million on December 12th, pushing cumulative inflows toward $975 million. Total net assets now exceed $1.18 billion.
That flow is constructive. It signals growing institutional access and sustained interest through regulated products. However, price response has been muted. This suggests ETF inflows are offset by spot selling elsewhere or longer-term positioning rather than immediate market buying.
Will XRP Go Up?
XRP is compressing between rising support and descending resistance. The market is preparing for resolution.
- Bullish case. A daily close above $2.15 flips trend structure and targets $2.3, followed by $2.45 if volume expands.
- Bearish case. Failure to hold $2 keeps the downtrend intact and exposes $1.9.
ETF inflows improve the long-term backdrop, but the price still needs confirmation. Until XRP breaks the trendline with conviction, the market remains neutral to bearish, with risk balanced tightly around $2.
Related: XRP Price Prediction: Descending Trendline Caps Recovery As ETF Launch Fails To Ignite Breakout
