Analysis: Beware of the $82,000 long lifeline—if breached, market makers may sell spot for hedging, accelerating the decline

BlockBeats News, November 21, on-chain data analyst Murphy issued a warning that, according to the Bitcoin URPD (UTXO Realized Price Distribution), the largest actual selling zone in the past three days was at a cost of $88,000 - $89,000, with a total of 64,334 BTC sold. The price range with the highest chip accumulation did not see a large amount of selling. The current market decline is mainly due to chips bought at recent highs being "dumped," while long-term profit-taking chips and high-level trapped chips are not the main selling force. The analyst believes that part of this is due to short-term/high-frequency funds being forced to stop loss, but a bigger reason is that the trading mechanism of derivatives market makers amplifies short-term volatility.

The options net premium heatmap shows that there are a large number of put sellers in the $82,000 to $87,000 range. When BTC approaches $82,000, market makers are forced to buy BTC due to trading mechanisms, thus establishing a "bottom support structure" here. However, once BTC falls sharply below $82,000, the market makers' "risk exposure" will become huge, and they must quickly "sell" BTC to hedge. The analyst believes that $82,000 is currently the lifeline for the bulls. If it falls below $82,000, market makers will further sell spot BTC for hedging, which will trigger a waterfall-like accelerated decline.