4E: Bitcoin Erases Year-to-Date Gains as Correlation Surges and Capital Outflows Suppress the Market

According to 4E's observation, amid the intensifying crypto bear market and cooling risk appetite, all of bitcoin's gains since the end of last year have been completely erased. In the early hours of Monday, BTC fell below $93,600, dropping beneath its opening price for the year. Bitwise CIO Matthew Hougan pointed out that major buyers—including ETF allocators and institutional debt allocators—have been continuously withdrawing over the past month, causing the capital inflows that once supported BTC's record highs to lose their effect. Within 41 days, the total crypto market capitalization evaporated by $1.1 trillion. Although the current liquidation scale is about 10% lower than the peak on October 10, risk sentiment remains fragile. Meanwhile, the correlation between bitcoin and US tech stocks has risen rapidly. Data from Kobeissi Letter shows that BTC's 30-day correlation with a certain exchange has climbed to 0.80, the highest since 2022, and the five-year correlation has also reached 0.54. Bitcoin is behaving more like a "high-beta tech stock" rather than an independent macro-hedging asset.While sentiment is under pressure, external structural changes are also worth noting. Global ETF issuance reached 137 new funds in October, with 15 new crypto ETFs—more than double that of September. The total number of global ETF issuances this year has reached 918, and is expected to surpass 1,100 for the full year, setting a new historical record.In terms of market views, BitMine Chairman Tom Lee emphasized that although BTC has experienced several deep declines, it is still in a decade-level super cycle, and he believes Ethereum is entering a similar path. Arete Capital partner McKenna pointed out that BTC may face a short-term downside risk of up to 31%, with key support at $96,200, $93,300, and the $86,000–$91,000 range. He expects that it may be difficult to reach new highs in 2025, but driven by institutional accumulation and ETF inflows, BTC could break through $200,000 before the end of Trump's term.4E reminds investors: The market is currently under the "triple pressure" zone of macro risk aversion, capital outflows, and increased correlation with tech stocks. The medium- and long-term logic for BTC remains unchanged, but short-term volatility may continue to intensify. Attention should be paid to capital flows, changes in correlation, and the stability of key support zones.