The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 67.3%.
Jinse Finance reported, according to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 67.3%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 32.7%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by January next year is 55.8%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 21.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 22.3%.
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Deutsche Bank: After the three major central banks hiked rates simultaneously, the market may once again underestimate the terminal interest rate
Deutsche Bank points out that as central banks in the US, Europe, and Japan are tightening policy simultaneously, the market may still be underpricing the eventual terminal rates. With oil prices remaining high, inflation may spill over into core inflation and wages. Moreover, financial conditions have not tightened in tandem, which could weaken the effect of rate hikes. Citing the experience of 2022, Deutsche Bank notes that the market then expected a total of around 200 basis points of Fed rate hikes in the first year, but the final figure exceeded 400 basis points, illustrating that the market often underestimates the terminal rate.
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