Federal Reserve Governor Cook: Recruitment is slowing down based on a large amount of real-time data
Jinse Finance reported that Federal Reserve Governor Cook stated that, based on a large amount of real-time data, hiring is slowing down, and this does not require employment reports for confirmation; there is reason to be concerned about an increase in the unemployed population; it is very important to act in a timely manner and use the latest incoming data in the December interest rate decision; if inflation proves to be more persistent, actions will be prepared.
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Deutsche Bank: After the three major central banks hiked rates simultaneously, the market may once again underestimate the terminal interest rate
Deutsche Bank points out that as central banks in the US, Europe, and Japan are tightening policy simultaneously, the market may still be underpricing the eventual terminal rates. With oil prices remaining high, inflation may spill over into core inflation and wages. Moreover, financial conditions have not tightened in tandem, which could weaken the effect of rate hikes. Citing the experience of 2022, Deutsche Bank notes that the market then expected a total of around 200 basis points of Fed rate hikes in the first year, but the final figure exceeded 400 basis points, illustrating that the market often underestimates the terminal rate.
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