Bitunix Analyst: The Federal Reserve Faces a "Data Blind Spot"—ADP Suspension and Shutdown Crisis May Severely Undermine Decision-Making Credibility

BlockBeats News, October 23—The Federal Reserve has suffered another setback. Following the suspension of statistics due to the ongoing government shutdown, even its long-term partner ADP has now stopped providing high-frequency employment data to the Fed, leaving policymakers in an unprecedented "data vacuum" ahead of the October 28–29 meeting. Reportedly, Powell personally attempted to restore data sharing but was ultimately unsuccessful. This means the Fed will have to assess policy without access to real-time labor market data, significantly increasing the risk of policy misjudgment.

On the macro level, the U.S. government shutdown has entered its 22nd day, approaching the longest record in history. Oxford Economics warns that if the deadlock continues into mid-November, it may overlap with the holiday season, causing consumer confidence to collapse and triggering "lasting trauma." The market has begun to bet that the Fed may end quantitative tightening early, or even be forced to make a substantial rate cut in December to address potential recession risks. U.S. Treasury yields have retreated, the dollar index is fluctuating, and market deleveraging sentiment is rising.

In the crypto market, liquidation heatmaps show a dense liquidation band forming above $114,000 for BTC, while strong support and buying interest appear in the $105,000 to $106,000 range below. Macro uncertainty combined with tightening dollar liquidity is driving a rise in short-term risk aversion, increasing the risk of volatility expansion.

Bitunix analyst's view: The Fed's data failure means reduced policy transparency and distorted market signals. When decision-making bases become unreliable, capital tends to use real-time market prices as the "only trustworthy indicator," which actually gives the crypto market's liquidity pricing mechanism a relative advantage. In the long run, data sovereignty and information transparency will become the new battlegrounds for monetary trust.