Altcoins lose steam and remain below their $1,6 trillion peak

Portalcripto2025/10/20 19:09

By:by Editor

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Altcoin market fails to surpass 2021 peak
ETF flows concentrate on Bitcoin and halt rotation
Restricted liquidity and macro scenario weigh on risk assets

Bitcoin reached a new all-time high near $126.000 in early October, but the altcoin market as measured by the index TOTAL2ES, has not yet managed to break through the $1,6 trillion ceiling reached in November 2021. Even after BTC's surge, altcoins continue to fail to confirm their bullish cycle, with the index trading at around $1,48 trillion, about $120 billion below the previous peak.

The absence of a new record in TOTAL2ES indicates that the "altcoin season" remains delayed. While Bitcoin surpassed its 2021 high by 84%, altcoins remain stuck at a structural resistance level, suggesting that institutional capital continues to prioritize the leading cryptocurrency via spot ETFs. These products, which have accumulated billions in net inflows, have absorbed much of the liquidity directed towards the sector.

Three drivers are shaping market behavior at this point in the cycle. The first is the net flow of Bitcoin ETFs into the United States, which serves as a key barometer of marginal demand. The second factor is linked to the macroeconomic scenario: trade tensions between the US and China—including the proposed 100% tariffs on imports—and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are affecting risk appetite. The third element is dollar liquidity stress, reflected in the increased use of the Fed's Permanent Deposit System, a sign that short-term funding remains tight.

This combination limits capital rotation into higher-beta assets like Solana, XRP, and other altcoins, preventing the sector's total capitalization from surpassing its previous peak. The technical trigger to confirm a new bullish phase would be a weekly close of TOTAL2ES above the $1,63 trillion to $1,7 trillion range—something that, so far, has not occurred.

Despite a partial recovery following the global deleveraging event, altcoins have yet to keep pace with Bitcoin. The market remains closely monitoring ETF flows, derivatives positions, and the evolution of global liquidity, which should determine whether there will be room for a marginal new high or prolonged consolidation before the expected rotation for the sector.

Tags: Altcoins

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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1. Crypto outperformed traditional equity indexes following the rate hike, but elevated interest rates remain a key constraint on cross-asset allocation. From September 12 to 18, BTC, ETH, and SOL gained 4.83%, 3.84%, and 9.96%, respectively, while the S&P 500 edged down 0.08%. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 1.11%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at approximately 4.998%. Improving risk appetite is therefore coexisting with elevated discount rates, raising the bar for RWA allocation: investors need to compare not only returns on the underlying assets, but also on-chain liquidity and collateral efficiency. 2. Growth in tokenized equities is occurring even as the overall RWA market remains under pressure. As of September 18, Distributed Asset Value across RWAs stood at $38.503 billion, down 1.13% week over week, while tokenized equities reached $3.056 billion, up 6.03%. This week's data are better explained by capital reallocating across different RWA segments than by a broad-based expansion of the entire RWA market. 3. For exchanges, the opportunity lies in connecting spot holdings, collateral, and derivatives. Reality's distributed asset value stands at approximately $155 million, while eligible rTokens can already be used within Bitget's UTA margin framework. Across CoinGlass's verifiable sample of 177 TradFi instruments, open interest reached approximately $11.498 billion, up 2.06% week over week, even as weekly trading volume declined 7.60%. The medium-term opportunity remains intact, but deeper utilization will depend on liquidity, collateral use, and sustained trading activity. 4.Assets to watch: BTC, ETH, SOL, NEAR, ZEC, gold, tokenized U.S. equities, COST. 5.Key metrics to watch: rToken collateral utilization, the durability of TradFi open interest and trading volume, and next week's employment and consumer data.

Bitget•2026/09/21 06:38