Polymarket launches up/down equity markets letting users bet on stock prices

Polymarket is launching "up/down" equity and index markets, letting users wager on whether specific stock prices or benchmarks finish higher or lower by a set time, the Intercontinental Exchange-backed prediction venue said on Wednesday.

The update arrives inside a new “Finance” section that organizes contracts by Equities, Earnings, Indices, Commodities, Acquisitions, IPOs, Fed Rates, Business, Treasuries, and more, with resolution sources listed as The Wall Street Journal and Nasdaq.

Up/down contracts expand Polymarket’s push into mainstream financial events, following last month’s rollout of company earnings prediction markets amid a reintroduction of the platform in the United States. That inclusion broadened the platform beyond politics and macro to single-name corporate outcomes.

Putting single-stock directionality into a prediction market format offers retail and crypto-native users an additional way to speculate on stocks without opening brokerage accounts or using margin instruments. It also nudges prediction markets closer to mainstream finance, a stated goal as the platform courts deeper liquidity.

Recent months have been a breakout period for prediction venues. Kalshi and Polymarket together recorded roughly $1.4 billion in trading last month as institutional attention increased.

Meanwhile, Intercontinental Exchange, parent of the NYSE, agreed to invest up to $2 billion in Polymarket, valuing it at $9 billion.

Still, Polymarket’s competitive field has tightened this year. Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated venue specializing in event contracts, has consistently dominated monthly trading volume. The MIT-bred firm also raised $300 million at a $5 billion valuation from backers like Sequoia Capital and Andreessen Horowitz.