IMF says Trump's trade war may drag down global output

BlockBeats News, October 14, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2025, citing that the impact of tariff shocks and financial conditions has been milder than expected. However, it also warned that the Trump trade war could significantly drag down global output.

In its World Economic Outlook, the IMF stated that recent trade agreements between the United States and several major economies have avoided the harshest tariff measures threatened by Trump. This has prompted the IMF to raise its growth forecast for the second time since April. The current expectations are as follows:

Global real GDP growth in 2025 is expected to be 3.2%, higher than the 3.0% forecast in July;

The global growth rate for 2026 is expected to be 3.1%, unchanged from the July forecast;

The US GDP growth in 2025 is expected to be 2.0%, slightly higher than the 1.9% in July;

Growth in 2026 is expected to be 2.1%, also a slight upward revision, but significantly lower than the 2.8% in 2024.

The IMF stated that US growth has benefited from lower-than-expected tariff levels, fiscal stimulus from Republican tax reforms, a loose financial environment, and the investment boom in artificial intelligence. (Golden Ten Data)