- XRP fell 24% in April and 13% in June with the analyst averaging an 18.5% decline.
- Projections show XRP could test $2.37 $2.21 or $2.08 if bearish pressure continues this cycle.
- The analyst warned that if XRP moves below $1.90 it may confirm the cycle top has already passed.
XRP may face sharp downside risk after a technical analyst projected possible drops ranging between 13% and 24% in current price action. The outlook suggests levels at $2.37, $2.21, and $2.08 could emerge as major support zones if bearish momentum intensifies.
Historical Drops Provide Context
The analyst referenced earlier price behavior when XRP interacted with the Bull Market Support Band (BMSB). On April 2025, XRP recorded a 24% decline, marking one of the steepest pullbacks in the current cycle.
A second major dip occurred on June 22, 2025, when the token fell 13%. The analyst combined these figures to present an average drop of 18.5%, which he noted as a useful gauge for traders.
This average drop aligns with the $2.21 price level, which now stands as a potential target should current weakness continue. By drawing comparisons to past moves, the chart highlights a recurring pattern of sharp retracements.
Potential Price Levels in Focus
Based on historical drops, the analyst calculated three possible outcomes tied to the present trading range. A 24% decline would push XRP toward $2.08, a level that could unsettle new investors who entered near $3.
A 13% correction would bring the price to $2.37. At that point, leveraged positions may face significant liquidation risks, potentially accelerating sell pressure.
The 18.5% average drop, estimated at $2.21, was presented as a balanced outcome. However, this scenario could still spark forced liquidations for long traders unwilling to add margin to protect positions.
These projected zones—$2.37, $2.21, and $2.08—serve as immediate markers for traders navigating the current environment. The technical framework provides a clear view of downside possibilities and areas of interest for market participants.
Critical Threshold Below $1.90
The analyst added a decisive warning for XRP holders. If the token drops below $1.90 on the three-day chart, the bearish case becomes undeniable. Such a move would indicate that the cycle top may already be behind, invalidating the bullish continuation thesis. In this scenario, the analyst said it would be time to exit completely and accept that prior assumptions were wrong.
By framing $1.90 as a make-or-break threshold, the outlook provides traders with a clear line for risk management. Failure to maintain this zone would confirm a structural breakdown.
The pivotal question now is whether XRP will revisit the $2.08 to $2.37 range before regaining strength, or if the $1.90 threshold looms closer than expected.
For now, the charted projections and historical comparisons serve as guideposts. With volatility increasing, these levels may determine the trajectory of XRP over the coming weeks.
