Next Week's Macro Outlook: Fed Policy Moves and Labor Market Data Become Market Focus

Jinse Finance reported that the cryptocurrency market experienced significant sell-offs this week, though this followed a strong performance in the previous week. Given the decline in volatility and the upcoming release of key data next week, this was not entirely unexpected, and some relatively weak highs have already formed. Bitcoin faces the risk of a double top and has not provided many measures to counter its impact, while Ethereum pulled back further after reaching a new high last Saturday. Ethereum's outlook is better than its "big brother" Bitcoin, but its performance will still depend on Bitcoin's movements. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week: On Wednesday at 21:00, 2025 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak on the US economy and monetary policy; Wednesday at 22:00, US July JOLTs job openings and July factory orders month-on-month; Thursday at 01:30, 2026 FOMC voting member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will participate in a fireside chat; Thursday at 02:00, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on economic conditions; Thursday at 20:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 30 and July trade balance; Thursday at 23:30, permanent FOMC voting member and New York Fed President Williams will speak at the New York Economic Club; Friday at 07:00, 2025 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will deliver remarks; Friday at 20:30, US August unemployment rate, August nonfarm payrolls (seasonally adjusted), average hourly earnings year-on-year and month-on-month. Continued weakness in the labor market will not only solidify market expectations for a rate cut in September but also rekindle hopes for a third 25-basis-point rate cut this year. In his speech at the Jackson Hole meeting, Powell emphasized that in the short term, inflation risks are skewed to the upside, while employment risks are skewed to the downside.