BTC Market Pulse: Week 32
Bitcoin’s rally pauses as momentum cools across spot, futures, options, and ETF markets. With liquidity thinning and risk appetite moderating, signs of seller exhaustion emerge - yet fragile market structure leaves BTC vulnerable to further downside.
Overview
With the market retesting the low-liquidity range below the $114k threshold level, the euphoria phase is on pause as Bitcoin undergoes a period of recalibration. Signals across market sectors point to cooling momentum, cautious positioning, and a moderation in risk appetite.
In the Spot Market, conditions weakened notably as the RSI fell from 47.4 to 35.8, dipping below its low band and signaling oversold territory. Spot CVD deteriorated sharply from -$107.1M to -$220.0M, reflecting intensifying sell-side pressure. Spot volume also declined from $8.4B to $7.5B, suggesting softer participation and liquidity during the retest of support.
The Futures Market saw Open Interest ease from $45.6B to $44.9B, hinting at mild position unwinding. Long-side funding dropped 33% to $3.1M, marking a pullback in leveraged bullish demand. Perpetual CVD fell from -$1.2B to -$1.8B, deep below its low band, underscoring aggressive distribution and forced disengagement among traders.
In the Options Market, Open Interest contracted 8.4% to $39.8B, reflecting reduced speculative activity. The volatility spread narrowed from 23.84% to 16.26%, showing less risk being priced in. However, 25 Delta Skew surged above its high band to 5.51%, signaling heightened demand for downside protection and rising hedging sentiment.
The ETF Market saw net inflows drop 24.9% to $269.4M, well below the low band, indicating weak institutional demand. Trading volume rose 9.9% to $19.8B, suggesting a responsive but cautious environment. ETF MVRV eased from 2.4 to 2.3, showing slightly lower profitability but ongoing unrealized gains.
On-chain fundamentals were mixed: active addresses rose 3.6% to 729k, while transfer volume dropped 13.9% to $9.4B and fees declined 14.4% to $483.2K, signaling quieter network activity. Realized Cap Change stayed elevated at 6.3%, reflecting strong but cooling capital inflows.
Capital flows remained steady with the STH/LTH ratio at 17.3% and Hot Capital Share at 36.0%, showing balanced liquidity. Profitability metrics cooled as Percent Supply in Profit fell to 93.6%, NUPL dropped to 8.6%, and Realized P/L Ratio contracted to 1.9, reflecting more cautious sentiment.
In sum, the market has shifted from euphoria to reassessment, with oversold conditions and seller exhaustion hinting at potential for a bounce. However, fragility is growing, and the structure remains vulnerable to external negative catalysts or delayed demand revival.
Off-Chain Indicators
On-Chain Indicators
Don't miss it!
Smart market intelligence, straight to your inbox.
Subscribe nowDisclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
BTC, ETH, XRP, ZEC consolidate near highs as breakout levels approach
As chip stocks plummet, "cybersecurity software" surges across the board, CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks hit new highs
CrowdStrike surged 13.8% in a single day to a record high, while Palo Alto Networks soared 13%. The software ETF outperformed the semiconductor ETF by more than 10 percentage points in a single day, marking the largest gap in history. Analysts believe that regardless of the pace of AI development, security demand will only continue to rise. Capital is accelerating its rotation from computing hardware to security software, with segments such as identity management and data governance expected to benefit first.
Altman can afford to wait, but Masayoshi Son can't: OpenAI will not go public this year, exposing a $20 billion gap and a credit weakness for SoftBank.
OpenAI has postponed its public listing, putting its largest external shareholder, SoftBank, in a liquidity crisis. This week, SoftBank is conducting a roadshow in New York, seeking to issue $10-20 billion in bonds to repay the $40 billion bridge loan previously borrowed to increase its investment in OpenAI. According to Bloomberg estimates, SoftBank faces a funding gap of at least $20 billion, and the yield on its existing U.S. dollar bonds has already exceeded 8.5%, with pricing approaching junk status.
Meeting postponed, gold price drops rapidly
Crypto prices
More
