Institutional Analysis: Trump’s 30% Tariff Could Push the Eurozone to the Brink of Recession

According to a report by Jinse Finance, Angel Talavera from Oxford Economics stated that imposing a 30% tariff on goods imported from the EU to the United States could push the eurozone to the brink of recession. Trump has threatened that if the two sides fail to reach a trade agreement, he will raise tariffs on EU goods from 10% to 30% starting August 1. Talavera noted that this may be a negotiation tactic by Trump, but according to the institution’s calculations, if the higher tariffs are implemented, the collective growth rate of the eurozone could drop by 0.3 percentage points over the next two years. In this scenario, the eurozone economy would stagnate in the coming quarters and approach a prolonged recession. He added, “The risk of tariffs exceeding our baseline assumption of 10% has now increased significantly.”