'Nothing new under the sun': Analyst sees subdued crypto summer despite potential 'Trump-trade' volatility and looming policy deadlines

Despite a calendar filled with potentially market-moving events, July may once again deliver subdued crypto trading activity to continue another quiet summer, according to K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde.

While July is crowded with potential "Trump-trade" volatility, including the budget bill, renewed post-pause tariff decisions, and executive order-related crypto policy deadlines, Lunde noted in a Tuesday report that past Julys have also combined explosive headlines with remarkably low volumes — a pattern that could repeat itself even amid the current backdrop of political, fiscal, and regulatory fireworks.

"In July 2022, Three Arrows Capital and Celsius entered bankruptcy. Last [July] was the most eventful, with Trump being shot and attending BTC 2024, while Biden resigned during a month where BTC endured significant bearish overhang from Mt. Gox distributions and the German government selling bitcoins," Lunde said. "Despite all this, July has seen the second-lowest monthly trading volume of the year in [the past] four years, with the market enduring a summer hibernation."

Chain of events

President Trump is expected to sign the controversial "big beautiful" budget bill by July 4, which could expand the U.S. deficit by as much as $3.3 trillion — dwarfing the DOGE government efficiency unit's cost-cutting initiatives under former lead Elon Musk. While the increased spending may be bullish for scarce assets like bitcoin, optimism could be short-lived as attention shifts to renewed trade tensions, Lunde wrote.

The 90-day tariff pause ends on July 9, likely prompting Trump to target specific countries with new trade measures. As seen earlier this year, tariff uncertainty has a tendency to suppress market momentum, posing a potential headwind for bitcoin in the weeks ahead, he added.

Meanwhile, the final deadline for a key crypto executive order arrives on July 22. The administration is expected to submit recommendations for a federal crypto framework and evaluations on a digital asset stockpile.

Trump also signed an executive order on March 6 to create a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, established from the approximate 200,000 BTC ($21 billion) already owned by the federal government that was forfeited as part of criminal or civil proceedings, minus those that still need to be returned to victims of crime.

Federal agencies were scheduled to submit reports by April 5 outlining their authority to transfer digital assets to the reserve. Details on budget-neutral acquisition strategies were expected around May 5, when Bessent was due to deliver an evaluation of the legal and investment considerations for the reserve. 

However, those deadlines all passed without any further information being publicly disclosed. "While we might not receive any more information following the July 22 deadline, decisions and announcements related to the SBR are always lingering and should be expected any time," Lunde said.

Traders touching grass rather than the order book?

Despite this packed agenda, the crypto market appears unusually restrained, according to Lunde. Key metrics — from funding rates to open interest, leveraged ETF exposure, trading volumes, and options skews — reflect an uncharacteristically cautious stance, even with bitcoin trading just 5% below its all-time high, he said. However, the analyst interprets this low risk appetite as forming a bullish foundation, with limited leverage reducing the threat of sudden liquidations if bullish momentum reappears in a period well known for its seasonal apathy, he said.

"Expecting a new repeat this summer might strike the reader as a lazy assumption, particularly given the U.S. policy moves ahead. Nonetheless, my base case for the month is that nothing is new under the sun and that the best path ahead is to stay patient and hold your spot exposure," Lunde concluded.