Bitcoin whipsaws back to $104k after losing six-figures as Iran’s failed attack signals end of tensions

Bitcoin (BTC) whipsawed below $100,000 at about 4 p.m. UTC on June 23 and reclaimed nearly $104,000 three hours later as traders processed news of an Iranian missile strike on a US air base in Qatar that caused no casualties.

As of press time, Bitcoin was trading at $103,801.74, up 4.5% over the past 24 hours after hitting an intraday low of around $99,500.

Iran fired a limited salvo at Al Udeid Air Base after Washington bombed three Iranian nuclear sites two days earlier. US officials said Tehran alerted Washington through back channels, allowing personnel to take cover. 

President Donald Trump confirmed the warning and called the response “very weak,” adding that the measured strike signaled an opening for de-escalation.

The absence of injuries blunted initial market anxiety. Bitcoin’s one-hour candle pierced $100,000 on high volume, then reversed as liquidity providers restored bid depth. By 7 p.m. UTC, the pair traded just below $104,000 on Binance order books, according to TradingView.

Range, leverage, and what to watch

Despite the recent volatility caused by escalating tensions in the Middle East, Bitcoin has shown resilience, trading above the six-figure level for the vast majority of it.

Bitfinex Alpha’s June 23 note called exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows “remarkably stable,” arguing that spot funds now act as a programmatic floor. 

The report pegged the zone between $94,000 and $95,000 as critical support, and the range between $105,000 and $110,000 as near-term resistance. Until weekly inflows re-accelerate past $1.5 billion or a fresh macro catalyst emerges, analysts expect prices to oscillate inside that corridor.

Derivatives data support the view of contained volatility. Futures open interest stands near $52.8 billion and options near $43.4 billion. Combined interest remains elevated at roughly $96 billion but has retreated from the $114 billion peak after a $14 billion deleveraging flush last week. 

Funding rates now sit in a “healthier zone,” suggesting capital is rotating into longer-horizon positions instead of short-term punts. The report warned that a renewed build-up of crowded leverage could trigger sharp liquidations, yet current metrics imply a firmer base.

ETF flows remain the fulcrum. Steady or rising allocations, especially during US hours when most spot-driven discovery occurs, would favor retests of the $110,000 cap. Conversely, a sustained week of net outflows would mark the first serious sign of rotational risk and could drag BTC back toward the mid-$90,000s, particularly if accompanied by fresh geopolitical stress.

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