FOMC Preview: Fed Expected to Hold Steady, 60% of Economists Predict Two Rate Cuts This Year

At 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and the latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell at 2:30. The market widely expects the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to keep rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%. According to the latest Reuters survey, 103 out of 105 economists surveyed expect rates to remain unchanged, while the other 2 anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut. In the same survey, 59 out of 105 economists predict the Fed will resume rate cuts next quarter (possibly in September), and 60% expect two rate cuts this year. This aligns with the median projection in the March dot plot and is broadly in line with money market pricing, which anticipates a 46 basis point easing by year-end. (Jin10)