Exploring the Rarity of Bitcoin: Why Its Surge to $100K Is Simply The Beginning

Key Points

• Bitcoin’s halving schedule reduces mining rewards, enhancing the cryptocurrency’s scarcity-driven value.
• With only 1.7 million Bitcoin left to mine, the supply is fast depleting, potentially driving stronger bullish momentum.

Bitcoin’s unique advantage over traditional fiat currencies lies in its decentralized nature and fixed supply limit of 21 million coins. Unlike fiat currencies, which governments can print endlessly, Bitcoin’s supply is finite, making it more likely to appreciate over time due to its increasing scarcity.

The Impact of Bitcoin Halving

With the next Bitcoin halving event on the horizon, the reduced supply could significantly impact price action. According to Glassnode, Bitcoin has now mined 900,000 blocks since its inception, each block releasing new Bitcoin and increasing the supply. However, halvings cut block rewards in half every 210,000 blocks, significantly slowing Bitcoin’s issuance as it approaches the 21 million supply limit.

Before the halving, each block rewarded 6.25 Bitcoin, resulting in 900 new Bitcoin entering the market per day. After the halving, rewards dropped to 3.125 Bitcoin per block, cutting daily Bitcoin issuance to 450 Bitcoin—almost half. Since then, Bitcoin has surged 47%, reflecting the impact of reduced supply.

Scarcity of Bitcoin

Miners expect the next halving to occur around block height 1,050,000 in 2028, reducing the block reward to 1.5625 Bitcoin. This will result in only 225 Bitcoin per day entering the market, half of today’s already limited issuance. With only 1.7 million Bitcoin left to mine before we hit the 21 million cap, each halving makes Bitcoin even scarcer.

The top 8 Bitcoin holders control 4.51 million Bitcoin, holding roughly $471 billion. This means they lock away over 21% of Bitcoin’s total supply, keeping it off the market. If demand continues to increase and Bitcoin’s market cap reaches $3 trillion or $5 trillion, each Bitcoin could potentially reach values of $143k, $238k, or even beyond.

While these numbers are rough estimates, they highlight the innovative design of Bitcoin. With supply tightening and big players holding onto their Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency’s “digital gold” narrative is only just beginning. The stage is set for significant gains over the long term.