The US CPI in January has been higher than expected for four consecutive years, and it is difficult to reach the 2% target this year

On February 12th, financial website Forexlive analysts stated that the US CPI in January has been higher than expected for four consecutive years. The market's expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year has decreased from 40 basis points before the report was released to 31 basis points. The core inflation rate rose by 0.4% on a month-on-month basis, while the overall inflation rate rose by 0.5%, making it difficult to reach the 2% inflation target this year.

Some people are talking about how the California wildfires have increased housing and used car inflation (up 2.2% month-on-month), or how businesses are raising prices in anticipation of potential tariffs. While these may be facts, unless the situation quickly reverses, the Federal Reserve will adopt a wait-and-see approach until the inflation rate is very close to 2%.