Analysis: It is expected that U.S. CPI data may be beneficial for Bitcoin, but the possibility of a breakthrough increase is not high

According to CoinDesk, the U.S. Department of Labor will announce January CPI data at 21:30 today (Singapore time). If inflation data is lower than expected, it may boost market expectations for a Fed rate cut, pushing down U.S. bond yields and weakening the dollar, which would be beneficial for risk assets like Bitcoin.

However, data from Mott Capital Management shows that the two-year inflation swap rate has risen to 2.8%, a new high since early 2023, indicating that market expectations for future inflation pressure may rise.

Analysts from BlackRock and Royal Bank of Canada believe that persistent service sector inflation and wage growth above the Fed's 2% target could force the Fed to maintain high interest rates. CME data shows that there is a 54% probability that the market expects only one or no Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Bitcoin is currently fluctuating between $90k-$110k range with little chance of significant short-term increases.