Deutsche Bank: The Federal Reserve is likely to skip a rate cut in January next year
As the market continues to bet that the Federal Reserve will take a cautious path to lowering interest rates, the dollar is rising. According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by a total of 38 basis points by December 2025. The Fed lowered its rate by 25 basis points last week but hinted that future cuts would slow down. Analysts at Deutsche Bank said in a report that it's likely the Fed will skip cutting rates in January next year, which could evolve into a long-term pause in policy easing until 2025.
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Crude oil is "coming back", but refined oil is "not coming back"; the global refining gap is widening.
According to Goldman Sachs, global refined oil exports have declined by about 6 million barrels per day year-on-year, with the Gulf region and Russia contributing three-quarters of the decrease. Unlike crude oil, which can be rerouted, damaged refineries cannot be relocated, and the Gulf region's refined oil exports have only recovered to 40% of pre-war levels. Goldman Sachs expects global refinery utilization rates to recover only by the second half of 2027; based on this, it has more than doubled its forecast for diesel profit margins in 2027.
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