The correlation record of the S&P 500 index trend and election results suggests Harris may win the election

Historical data shows that when the S&P 500 Index (SPX) rises in the three months before an election, the incumbent party candidate has an 80% chance of winning. Conversely, when the S&P 500 Index falls in the three months before an election, there is a 89% chance that a candidate from another party will win. It is reported that this has been a very accurate signal in every election since 1928. Commentators say if the S&P 500 index does not erase its gains of 8% since August within one day, Harris is likely to win. Meanwhile, market experts interviewed pointed out that both current market and political situations are unique which makes this election more likely to be an exception to historical experience.