Bitcoin Has 9.58 Percent Chance of Breaking $100,000 by Year-End, Deribit Options Market Data Shows

On Oct. 25, CoinDesk reported that despite the market's expectations for Bitcoin to break $100,000 by the end of the year, Deribit Options Market data shows that the likelihood of this is only 9.58 percent. In contrast, the probability of the BTC price rising to $82,000 is higher.

Deribit data shows that as of Dec. 27, BTC's implied volatility was 54 percent, implying that there is 22 percent room for the price to fluctuate, with the possibility of a rise to $82,000 or a fall of the same magnitude existing. Despite the bullish market sentiment, the stable implied volatility suggests that dramatic fluctuations are difficult in the short term. As the U.S. presidential election approaches on Nov. 5, the results could create volatility for the market, especially in anticipation of a Trump victory, which could trigger selling pressure if the results don't match.