WSJ: Trump’s lead on Polymarket may be caused by large bets, aiming to build momentum for Trump’s influence

According to reports, the odds of Trump winning the November election have increased significantly over the past two weeks on the cryptocurrency prediction market Polymarket. As of Thursday, bettors on the platform gave Trump a 62% chance of winning, while Harris had a 38% chance of winning. But in early October, the two candidates were still neck-and-neck. The surge may have been an illusion created by four Polymarket accounts, which collectively invested about $30 million in cryptocurrency betting that Trump would win. Miguel Morel, CEO of blockchain analysis company Arkham Intelligence, said after the review that he had good reason to believe that the four accounts belonged to the same entity.