Goldman Sachs strategist says it's unlikely that the U.S. stock market will fall into a bear market

Goldman Sachs Group strategists pointed out that it is unlikely for the U.S. stock market to fall by 20% or more, given the expectation of Federal Reserve rate cuts and the still low risk of economic recession. The team led by Christian Mueller-Glissmann stated that although under high valuations, mixed growth prospects, and policy uncertainty, the U.S. stock market may decline by year-end, but the probability of falling directly into a bear market is very low because the economy is still partly supported by a "healthy private sector". In addition, historical analysis from strategists shows that since the 1990s, occurrences where SP 500 index fell more than 20% have decreased in frequency due to extended business cycles, reduced macroeconomic volatility and central bank's "buffering" role. They indicated in a report on September 9th that they maintain tactical neutrality in asset allocation but hold a "mildly pro-risk" attitude over a span of twelve months.