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Can the Bank of Japan's "twist operation" really suppress long-term interest rates? Goldman Sachs: Fiscal issues are the real root cause, and term premium may persist for a long time.
Goldman Sachs pointed out that the factors driving the recent rise in long-term U.S. yields include the U.S. fiscal deficit, inflation uncertainty, large-scale AI-related debt issuance, and market concerns about an increase in the equilibrium real interest rate. Meanwhile, Treasury repo operations and adjustments in issuance structure do not affect these factors. Therefore, Goldman Sachs believes that this intervention can only temporarily relieve pressure and cannot change the trend direction of long-term yields.
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