Outlier Ventures: The strong performance of BTC after the halving in 2020 is purely coincidental. The four-year cycle driven by Bitcoin halving no longer holds true

Jasper De Maere, a researcher at Outlier Ventures, stated that the halving in 2024 is the fifth period of Bitcoin's halving. The worst performance of BTC price occurred within 125 days after the halving, with a drop of 8% compared to the day of halving, while the average increase in previous periods was 22%. We believe that the reduction in production in 2016 was the last time that halving had a significant fundamental impact on BTC price trends. Since then, against an increasingly mature and diversified crypto market backdrop, miners' BTC block rewards have become negligible. The strong performance of BTC and cryptocurrency markets after the 2020 halving is purely coincidental because it happened during an unprecedented global capital injection period following COVID-19 pandemic; just in America alone, money supply (M2) increased by 25.3% that year. Some people think that the four-year cycle driven by halfing will still hold true in 2024 but argue that approval for BTCEFTs pulled demand forward causing a strong rise before its halfing - this argument is incorrect. Approval for BTCEFTs are catalysts driven by demand while halfings are catalysts driven by supply; therefore they do not contradict each other. In terms of performance within those first post-halvening125 days ,the fifth cycle (2024) has been performing worse than any other since its inception and remains as only cycle where there has been decrease from initial prices on day one.