Market Outlook by Greeks.live (1/29-2/4)
This week is a macro week, with the release of many macroeconomic data centered around the decision on US Federal Reserve interest rates. However, overall expectations are consistent and the correlation between macro data and cryptocurrency market conditions has weakened. Currently, the main term IV is low and volatility expectations are not significant. The impact of BTC spot ETF has ended, and the selling pressure from Grayscale has also significantly diminished. Investors are now looking for the next hot spot.
1/31 Wednesday:
US January ADP employment figures
Bank of Japan releases summary of deliberations by Monetary Policy Meeting Committee members for March
2/1 Thursday:
US Federal Reserve interest rate decision
Bank of England interest rate decision
US initial jobless claims for the week
2/2 Friday:
US January unemployment rate
US January non-farm payroll employment figures
Final value of University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for January
The volatility brought by BTC spot ETF to the market has subsided, with implied volatility (IV) in major terms at extremely low levels. Currently, IV across all terms is below 50%, making it a high-value proposition to buy now. The current market is in a rebound after panic selling, and there is a high probability that buying on dips will result in short-term gains.
In terms of cryptocurrency lending markets, as the market calms down, leverage levels have quietly started to rise again. The lending market has bounced back from its low point and recently some high-interest orders have appeared. Friends with idle funds should seize this opportunity to re-enter the lending market.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
Micron CEO: AI Completely Redefines the Memory Chip Cycle Logic, Customer Demand Exceeds Company Supply by About 50%
Mehrotra stated that AI has transformed storage chips from a highly cyclical commodity market into an indispensable strategic component of AI infrastructure. Currently, data center clients' purchasing intentions are about 150% of Micron's actual deliverable supply, meaning demand exceeds supply by approximately 50%, and the company’s production capacity still cannot meet market demand. The storage procurement model has also shifted from "price bidding" to collaborative design with clients.
Arbitrum activates ArbOS 61 Elara with optional compliance filters for Orbit chains
The "AI bubble" hasn't burst yet, but this bond veteran has quietly reduced credit bond holdings to the lowest level since 2012: "Don't be too greedy, it's time to pull back."
The yield on bonds issued by U.S. blue-chip companies such as AT&T, JPMorgan Chase, and Amazon is only 0.8 percentage points higher than that of U.S. Treasuries, a premium that is close to the nearly 30-year low reached earlier this year. This means that a widening of the spread by just about 12 basis points would be enough to offset an entire year's excess return of these bonds over Treasuries.
Besant intervenes in the bond market, casting a shadow over Walsh's call for the market to "follow the data"
Basent's announcement to expand Treasury repo operations has caused confusion over policy signals, directly impacting the new communication framework recently established by Federal Reserve Chairman Walsch. Walsch had urged the market to base actions on economic data rather than the Fed's own interest rate forecasts, while the Fed also uses market pricing as a reference for economic assessment. Analysts point out that if the US Treasury manages to suppress long-term yields, it may force the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate hikes.
Crypto prices
More
