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VIPAre There Quantitative Indicators That Work Over the Long Term in Crypto?

Cooling inflation has revived expectations for monetary easing. The probability of a September rate hike fell from around 55% to 34%, while the S&P 500 broke above 7800 for the first time and 18 global equity indexes reached all-time highs on the same day. South Korea's KOSPI led the gains, rising 10.9% for the week. In earnings, Tapestry, Cisco, and JD.com all beat quarterly expectations but still plunged 7%–16% in a single session after disappointing guidance. In the current market, strong results alone are not enough—investors are rewarding strong guidance. Crypto has been left behind by the broader rally, but we believe it is consolidating near a potential bottom. BTC fell 2.6% for the week to around $63,400, but spot ETF outflows moderated and approximately $1 billion flowed back into stablecoins. Sentiment shows an unusually wide divergence: the U.S. equity Fear & Greed Index stands at 66 (Greed), while the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains at 29 (Fear). Quantitative strategy focus: the four top-performing strategies we identified significantly outperformed buy-and-hold. For ETH, Supertrend generated a total return of 151.2% (44.8% annualized) and outperformed buy-and-hold by 117 percentage points after fees, while ATR Channel Breakout achieved a Sharpe ratio of 1.33 with a maximum drawdown of just 10.2%. For BTC, Bollinger Band Mean Reversion returned 151.3%, outperforming buy-and-hold by 54 percentage points after fees. The effectiveness of each strategy depends on the market regime: mean-reversion strategies perform better in range-bound markets with an upward bias, while trend-following strategies that can move into cash are better suited to range-bound markets with a downward bias. Key assets to watch: BTC, ETH, SOL, XAUUSD, UKOUSD, USOUSD, rWMT, rHD, ONDO, RDDT.

VIPAI's Adjustment Deepens as Dollar Weakness Triggers an Asian Asset Repricing

1. The broad-based AI rally is giving way to stock-specific fundamentals. The Nasdaq entered correction territory this week, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell into a technical bear market. However, Microsoft's quarterly results exceeded expectations by 14%, with accelerating Azure growth and the first measurable evidence of Copilot monetization, adding $500 billion in market value in a single day. Meanwhile, Hong Kong's four largest banks continued to hit record highs, supported by three structural tailwinds—high dividend yields, RMB appreciation, and expanding net interest margins—largely independent of the AI narrative. 2. A weaker U.S. dollar is creating a re-rating opportunity for Asian assets. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell below 101, while CFTC positioning data show speculative traders are now net short the dollar against all six major currencies. Record short positioning in the Japanese yen, a 7.2% monthly gain in the Korean won, and RMB appreciation have all reinforced the strength of Asian assets, including Hong Kong-listed banks. Dollar weakness also helped lift gold back above $4100 and pushed copper 2.6% higher. If the dollar's decline continues, the lower opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets could provide a tailwind for BTC and gold. However, continued ETF outflows and Extreme Fear sentiment have yet to reverse, suggesting a catalyst is still needed before market sentiment can improve meaningfully. 3. The Federal Reserve voted 9-3 to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, with three dissenting policymakers calling for a 25-basis-point rate hike—one of the most hawkish voting splits in recent years. The 30-year Treasury yield rose above 5.20% for the first time since 2007, while liquidity conditions continued to tighten as bank reserves fell below $3 trillion, the Treasury General Account rebuilt its cash balance, and high-yield credit spreads widened for a third consecutive week. Key assets to watch: BTC, ETH, XAUUSD, UKOUSD, rMSFT, rAMD, rLLY, BANK, ONDO, COTI

VIPThe CLARITY Act: Crypto Regulation and Investment Outlook

1. The CLARITY Act is approaching a critical legislative milestone. The first comprehensive U.S. regulatory framework for digital assets has already passed the House of Representatives and the Senate Banking Committee. However, three key issues—the proposed ban on stablecoin yields, enforcement authority, and conflict-of-interest disclosure requirements for public officials—continue to delay a full Senate vote. With the Senate set to recess on August 10, the legislative window is narrowing. If enacted, the bill would, for the first time, clearly define the respective jurisdictions of the SEC and the CFTC, providing a long-awaited regulatory foundation for digital asset valuations. 2. 2. The CLARITY Act would establish a unified federal regulatory framework for digital assets, ending years of regulatory ambiguity. We assign a 35–40% probability to the bill's passage, with leading DeFi protocols standing to benefit most , as the proposed safe-harbor provisions would provide decentralized protocols with greater regulatory certainty. Market leaders with strong competitive moats and pricing power—including UNI, AAVE, and LDO—would be well positioned to benefit from a valuation re-rating as regulatory uncertainty gives way to greater compliance clarity. Even if the legislation is delayed, the bill has already outlined the likely long-term direction of U.S. crypto regulation. 3. Macro events take center stage this week, with the July 29 FOMC meeting and the release of Core PCE on the next day marking one of the year's most important macro event windows. Markets assign a 63.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. The Fed's balance sheet remains steady at approximately $6.75 trillion, suggesting broadly neutral liquidity conditions. Meanwhile, BTC is trading around $65,000, while the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in Fear territory at 27. Total stablecoin market capitalization has surpassed $315 billion, reaching another record high, indicating ample sidelined liquidity that has yet to translate into stronger demand for crypto assets. Assets to watch: UNI, AAVE, LDO, BTC, ETH, SOL, rMSFT, rAAPL, rAMZN, rMETA.