From Near Elimination to a $44 Billion Market Cap Surge: Moderna's Decade-Long Gamble on Cancer Vaccines

Moderna is betting on cancer vaccines, aiming to open a second growth curve for the company.

On August 19, Moderna announced key clinical results for the personalized mRNA melanoma vaccine it is co-developing with Merck. Data showed that, compared to Keytruda alone, this therapy can reduce the risk of recurrence or death in high-risk melanoma patients by 44%. After the announcement, Moderna’s stock price surged, with the company's market value increasing by about $44 billion at one point.

Two days later, The Wall Street Journal published an in-depth report on August 21, recreating the scene on the day the results were announced: 4,500 Moderna employees temporarily gathered in the company cafeteria, waiting for management to reveal the results that had been more than a decade in the making. CEO Stéphane Bancel even spoke with note cards in hand; there were hugs, tears, and champagne popping onsite.

For Moderna, this was not only a clinical breakthrough but also the critical moment of a long-term high-stakes gamble finally coming to fruition.

The COVID vaccine brought Moderna approximately $36 billion in sales within just a few years, providing ample cash to continue betting on high-risk projects like cancer. However, as the pandemic dividend faded, the company faced plummeting sales, layoffs, cuts to research projects, and a sharp stock decline. The market began to question what the company could rely on for growth after the COVID era.

Now, Moderna has finally arrived at a compelling answer.

As the report points out, the company’s gamble is far from over. Whether the efficacy can be sustained, whether personalized vaccines can be produced at scale, whether the costs can be accepted by the market, and whether this technology can be applied to more types of cancer—all these factors will determine whether this breakthrough is a short-term rebound or if Moderna can truly unlock a second growth curve.

A Decades-Long Gamble on Cancer

The Wall Street Journal recalls that Moderna began researching mRNA cancer therapies early on, but initially did not focus on oncology. The reason is not hard to understand: cancer vaccines had already seen numerous failed attempts, with long research cycles, high costs, and very limited success rates.

It wasn’t until 2013, when hedge fund manager Patrick Degorce’s wife died of lung cancer, that he decided to invest $500,000 in Moderna’s cancer project, further advancing their efforts in this direction.

The real turning point for the project was the 2016 partnership with Merck. At the time, Merck invested $200 million, and the two companies began exploring the effects of combining mRNA cancer vaccines with Keytruda. For Moderna, still in its early stages, this funding and the combination with a mature immunotherapy provided vital support for continued development.

The subsequently unexpected COVID-19 pandemic provided ample firepower for this long-term gamble.

Moderna’s COVID vaccine generated about $36 billion in sales in the first two years of the pandemic, with much of that cash subsequently invested in new areas such as oncology. In some sense, without the massive cash flow from the COVID vaccine, Moderna might have struggled to sustain its high-risk bet on cancer to this day.

mRNA: From “Vaccinating” to “Treating Cancer”

The biggest difference between this cancer vaccine and traditional vaccines is that it is not a one-size-fits-all formula; instead, it is customized based on the tumor characteristics of each patient.

According to The Wall Street Journal, doctors first sequence the patient’s tumor, searching for mutations unique to cancer cells, then use algorithms to select up to 34 worthwhile targets. This information is then encoded into mRNA and delivered into the body via lipid nanoparticles.

Simply put, the therapy tries to provide the immune system with a “hit list” specific to the patient’s tumor, helping T cells more accurately find and attack cancer cells.

This is also what makes the technology truly worth watching: if this personalized approach can be validated in more types of cancer, mRNA’s commercial value could expand from its previous heavy reliance on COVID vaccines to the much larger oncology treatment market.

The Market Once Lost Faith in Moderna

However, before this set of data was released, the market's attitude toward Moderna was quite pessimistic. As demand for the COVID vaccine quickly declined, the company’s revenues came under pressure, forcing continuous layoffs and cost reductions, and casting increasing doubt on the commercial prospects of mRNA technology.

The Wall Street Journal cited market data showing that earlier this year, short interest in Moderna’s stock once reached as high as 20%. The core issue was clear: Without the COVID vaccine, what could Moderna rely on to make money?

Therefore, when Moderna announced positive cancer vaccine data, it was no surprise that the market quickly re-priced the company. If the mRNA platform can replicate similar success in cancer treatment, Moderna will have the chance to prove that it is not just a vaccine company that briefly rose on the pandemic windfall, but a biotech firm with sustained R&D capability and commercial potential.

However, the scientific community remains cautious. The report quoted mRNA technology pioneer and Nobel Prize laureate Drew Weissman as saying that current data are still insufficient to answer key questions, such as how long the treatment’s efficacy may last. In other words, a 44% reduction in recurrence or death risk is undoubtedly an important signal, but proving that this technology can truly change cancer treatment will require even more clinical data.

The Real Test Comes After Approval

Even if clinical results continue to be positive, Moderna still faces an even more practical question: Can this vaccine become a good business?

Personalized treatment means that each patient may require a vaccine newly designed for their individual tumor mutations. Compared to traditional drugs that can be mass produced, this model is inherently more complex, and brings higher manufacturing and supply chain costs.

The Wall Street Journal quoted experts saying that such personalized therapies may face high costs in the future. That means the next phase of challenges facing Moderna are not just “does it work,” but also “can it be produced at scale,” “will insurance cover it,” and “can patients afford it.”

Currently, Moderna and Merck plan to further release relevant clinical data and aim to expand this type of therapy beyond melanoma to lung cancer, kidney cancer, and pancreatic cancer. If future trials can continue to validate the efficacy, the high-stakes bet that Moderna has persisted with for more than a decade may finally enter its pivotal phase.

For a company that once soared thanks to the COVID vaccine but fell into decline after the pandemic, what truly deserves attention is not how much the stock price rose in a single day, but whether it can use cancer vaccines to prove: The story of mRNA may just be getting started.