Silver surged about 20% in August to touch $70 an ounce Friday as the US Treasury’s decision to double long-bond buybacks extended a powerful bid for precious metals.
Spot silver reached $70 an ounce on Aug. 21 before easing slightly, up from about $57.59 at the end of July. The rapid advance has pushed the metal beyond several banks’ full-year average forecasts while leaving it below many of their more bullish year-end targets.
Silver equities have moved even faster, with the largest producers, streamers and junior-focused exchange-traded funds amplifying the metal’s gains as investors pile into the sector.
The rally highlights silver’s leverage to shifts in monetary conditions and investor demand. With bullion already at levels that recently looked aggressive, attention is turning to whether miners can sustain their outperformance and how much of Wall Street’s bullish outlook has already been priced in.
Miners amplify
Hecla Mining (NYSE: HL), the largest US silver producer, led the group with a 47% August gain, more than twice the metal’s advance.
Wheaton Precious Metals (TSX, NYSE: WPM) climbed 44%, while Coeur Mining (NYSE: CDE), First Majestic Silver (NYSE: AG) and Fortuna Mining (NYSE: FSM) each gained 42%. Silvercorp Metals (NYSE: SVM) advanced 36%.
The Global X Silver Miners ETF (NYSE Arca: SIL) rose 35%, while the ETFMG Prime Junior Silver Miners ETF (NYSE Arca: SILJ), which focuses on smaller developers, added 32%.
Pan American Silver (TSX, NYSE: PAAS), the world’s largest primary silver producer, gained 22%. While that was the weakest performance among the group, it still exceeded silver’s roughly 20% advance.
The broad outperformance shows how quickly operating and market leverage can flow through silver equities during a sharp metals rally. It also raises the stakes if bullion reverses, because the same leverage that boosts miners during an upswing can magnify losses when prices retreat.
Bank targets
Major bank forecasts remain widely dispersed, reflecting uncertainty over how far silver’s rally can run after its rapid ascent. Year-end and peak calls stretch from roughly $67 to $118 an ounce, while several institutions see potential for triple-digit prices.
UBS targets $80 an ounce at year-end, while J.P. Morgan has an $85 fourth-quarter high and warns of downside risk to $50. Goldman Sachs forecasts a full-year average range of $85 to $100.
Citigroup is more bullish, targeting $110 an ounce for the second half and maintaining a medium-term range of $110 to $150. CIBC sees about $105 at year-end, while BNP Paribas targets roughly $100.
At the more conservative end, ING forecasts $74 for the fourth quarter and HSBC sees a $75 full-year average. Commerzbank has a $67 year-end target, although it retains a longer-term bullish target of $90.
Bank of America has a $85.93 full-year average baseline and sees silver exceeding $100 in the fourth quarter. Its tail-risk scenario stretches from $135 to $309 if the gold-to-silver ratio compresses sharply.
BMO Capital Markets forecasts a $74.50 full-year average but retains a $160 fourth-quarter bull case based on similar ratio compression. TD Securities has the highest peak call among the forecasts at $118, alongside a much more bearish $44 full-year average baseline.
Scotiabank forecasts a $65 full-year average, while Royal Bank of Canada maintains an outperform view and highlights a central recovery band around $75 extending into 2027. Bain Commodities sees an $85 peak against an annual average near $63.50.
The range underscores how dramatically silver’s August rally has changed the debate. At $70, the metal has already overtaken some banks’ baseline expectations, leaving the next leg dependent on whether investment demand can keep pushing prices towards the increasingly crowded cluster of forecasts in the $74-to-$100 range.
