CLARITY Act Odds Shock for XRP Holders

The chances of the Clarity Act becoming law before the U.S. midterm elections appear increasingly uncertain, according to comments shared by Digital Asset Investor.

In a video attached to his post, he highlighted remarks from Bitwise’s Matt Hogan, who assessed the political motivation behind the legislation and explained how the crypto market could respond whether Congress passes the bill or not.

Clarity Act Odds Fall to About 20%

Hogan said both the crypto industry and lawmakers have reasons to push the Clarity Act toward completion before the midterm elections. He explained that the crypto sector would benefit from having a legal foundation rather than continuing to operate under regulations established primarily through agencies such as the Securities and Exchange Commission.

However, Hogan acknowledged that there is currently no clear path for the legislation to reach the finish line. He pointed to Polymarket, where the probability of the Clarity Act passing stood at approximately 20% at the time of his remarks.

The declining odds represent a significant change in expectations surrounding the legislation. The Clarity Act has remained closely watched because its passage could establish clearer rules for digital assets and define responsibilities between U.S. financial regulators.

Hogan Sees Two Possible Paths for Crypto

Despite the uncertainty surrounding the bill, Hogan said he remains positive about the crypto market through the end of the year. He explained that a successful passage of the Clarity Act could create a new market environment for the industry.

According to Hogan, legislation would provide crypto companies with a more established foundation for operating in the United States. Rather than relying heavily on regulatory decisions from the SEC, companies could operate under rules approved through the legislative process.

If the Clarity Act fails to pass, Hogan does not expect regulatory progress to stop. He said the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission would continue moving the industry forward through their respective actions.

Regulatory Progress Could Continue Gradually

Hogan nevertheless expects the end-of-year outlook to remain positive, although he believes progress could happen more gradually if the legislation does not pass. One concern involves the possibility that regulatory changes could face reversals under a future administration.

That uncertainty could influence how quickly companies commit capital and expand their operations in the United States. Hogan still maintained that regulatory progress is occurring regardless of the Clarity Act’s immediate outcome.

Digital Asset Investor’s post therefore focused on the contrast between the legislation’s declining odds and Hogan’s continued confidence in crypto’s regulatory development. While the Clarity Act currently faces uncertainty, Hogan believes the industry will continue moving toward greater regulatory clarity, whether through congressional legislation or actions from federal regulators.