EUR/USD Price Forecast: Doubling US bond-buying plan opens way for 1.1800

The Euro (EUR) posts a fresh three-month high at around 1.1693 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Thursday. The major currency pair strengthens as the US Dollar takes a hit due to plunging United States (US) long-dated bond yields after the Treasury Department’s announcement that it will double down on its bond-buying operations to curb higher borrowing costs.

Strategists at Danske Bank note that EUR/USD “spiked higher” after the US Treasury announced an increase in buyback volumes of longer-dated Treasury bonds, a move that coincided with a flattening of the US yield curve. They highlight that the 10Y UST, at “4.64% currently, … is now 10bp below the peak on Tuesday,” and that the adjustment in US yields has “only partly spilled over to Europe, where the primary market has opened with plenty of SSA and covered bond deals.”

In the European session, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, extends its decline and posts a fresh 11-week low near 98.70.

On the Euro front, financial markets are confident that the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise interest rates at the September meeting. In contrast, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to leave them steady in the same month.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD trades at 1.1693, extending its advance above the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1547. The pair’s position comfortably above this short-term trend indicator suggests a constructive near-term bias, though the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 73.98 signals overbought conditions that could cap upside in the very short run.

On the downside, initial support is located at the 20-day EMA around 1.1547, where a pullback would likely be tested before any deeper correction unfolds. Looking up, the pair could advance towards May's high at around 1.1800 once it stabilizes above 1.1700.

Analysts at UOB Group are also constructive on the pair in the near-term horizon, recalling that they “turned positive on Monday (17 Aug, spot at 1.1570), indicating that ‘the price action suggests EUR is likely to trade with an upside bias.’” On Tuesday (18 Aug, spot at 1.1580), they maintained that “while the upside bias remains intact, given that there is no significant increase in upward momentum, EUR must break and hold above 1.1615 before a move to 1.1655 and beyond can be expected.” That condition was met yesterday as EUR “broke above 1.1615, as it rallied sharply to 1.1679,” with the pair closing “at a three-month high of 1.1677, up by 0.89%.”

UOB now judges that, “given the strong momentum, there is room for further upside in EUR toward 1.1725,” and will “maintain our positive EUR view as long as it stays above 1.1600 (‘strong support’ level previously at 1.1525).”