This Bitcoin Cycle Pattern Could Set Up a 1,000% Rally: Analyst

Analyst Crypto Patel says Bitcoin has followed the exact same cycle three times in a row, and he is betting the current downturn sets up another run worth ten times the cryptocurrency’s price from here.

The call, posted Wednesday, arrives as Bitcoin sits at around $65,000, down almost half from its October 2025 all-time high, with trading activity thinning to levels not seen since the last bear market.

The Pattern, According to Patel

The second cycle followed a similar sequence. Bitcoin fell 77% from its $69,000 peak before finding support around a bullish order block and fair value gap. It then climbed to a record $126,000.

Patel believes the current cycle is following the same structure. Bitcoin went past $126,000 before entering a decline that he estimates at 69%, with the expectation that the market will form another bullish order block around $50,000 to $40,000.

“Each Cycle: Smaller Drawdown. Higher High. Same Playbook,” the analyst wrote, adding that Bitcoin is currently sitting near the area he believes will become that bullish order block. He then assigned a projected target of 1,000% upside.

Patel’s argument rests heavily on repetition. According to him, the pattern has “NEVER Failed,” although the post does not provide a statistical test of the pattern or explain how the 1,000% target is calculated. The forecast therefore remains a technical thesis rather than a confirmed market path.

Where the Bigger Picture Stands

But not everyone agrees the four-year cycle Patel is describing still applies, with market watchers, including Scott Melker and Arthur Hayes, previously questioning whether the pattern holds this time around.

Bitcoin has not closed above $100,000 since November 13, 2025, and SkyBridge Capital’s Anthony Scaramucci told CNBC this week that the next halving, expected around April 2028, should “tighten prices” enough to push the asset back over that mark. Scaramucci made a similar call before the 2024 halving, predicting BTC would reach $170,000, but it peaked at just over $126,000 instead.