Web3: Foreign media: The 2026 altcoin market may depend on the rebound of the ISM

Foreign media, citing analysts, stated that whether the altcoin market will experience a larger-scale rally in 2026 depends not only on the crypto industry itself, but also on whether the U.S. manufacturing sector rebounds. The article notes that during previous cycles when altcoins significantly outperformed Bitcoin, it was often accompanied by a strong U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index, along with a rapid decline in Bitcoin dominance.

This rotation is significantly weaker than the previous two cycles

Historically, 2017 and 2021 both witnessed periods when capital shifted massively from Bitcoin to altcoins. In 2017, Bitcoin dominance dropped from around 95% to 35%; in 2021 it fell from roughly 73% to 39%.

But in 2025, this indicator only declined from about 66% to 57%. This means the window during which altcoins outperformed Bitcoin was shorter, and the market did not display the broad-based rally seen in previous cycles.

ISM 58 is seen as a key signal

Analysts regard the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index as an important indicator for the next altcoin trend. According to their analysis, in 2017 and around 2020, when the ISM rose above 58, altcoins' performance relative to Bitcoin improved significantly, and Bitcoin dominance dropped quickly.

By comparison, since 2021, the ISM has mostly remained below 50, reflecting weakness in the manufacturing sector. The article suggests this period coincided with the underperformance of altcoins versus Bitcoin.

The article also mentions that despite recent geopolitical tensions, high oil prices, corporate sell-offs, and a cold wallet theft worth around $130 million, Bitcoin’s overall trend has remained relatively stable. Some analysts interpret this as selling pressure gradually diminishing and buying interest returning.

Asian export data seen as a leading indicator

In addition to U.S. data, South Korea’s exports and Taiwan’s export prices are also listed as forward-looking indicators. The reason is that both economies play key roles in semiconductor and tech component supply chains, and changes in their exports are often used to gauge whether global manufacturing demand is recovering.

The article states that these two indicators have recently shown signs of strengthening. If this trend continues, it could drive the ISM to further recover, approaching the 58 level that previously coincided with expanded altcoin rotations.

For specific coins, analysts are more optimistic about projects with stronger fundamentals, rather than expecting the entire altcoin sector to rise together. The article specifically mentions Ethereum and Solana as assets that could benefit first, provided Bitcoin’s rally slows and market risk appetite continues to improve.

Another analyst mentioned that the current broad altcoin market capitalization is about $161 billion, close to the $160 billion to $165 billion support range. If this range holds, the target could move up to the $320 billion to $340 billion zone, while deeper support lies around $124 billion.