Costco Earnings May Disappoint, but There's a Special Catalyst That Could Lift the Stock -- Barrons.com

By Ty Roush

Earnings from Costco Wholesale next week could fall short of Wall Street forecasts, but an upcoming announcement from the retailer could be an enticement t0 investors.

BofA Securities projected adjusted earnings of $6.52 a share from Costco in its fiscal fourth quarte, below consensus estimates of $6.55, analyst Christopher Nardone wrote in a note Wednesday. That could be overshadowed by a possible announcement of a special dividend payout, thanks to Costco's "healthy" cash balance, Nardone said.

Costco last issued a special dividend of $15 a share in January 2024, suggesting a payout of $22 a share if delivered at a similar yield, according to Nardone.

Oppenheimer analysts similarly projected Costco's earnings results to fall short of estimates. Analysts at the firm viewed adjusted earnings estimates of $6.55 a share to be "more of a best case scenario" for Costco, but they see potential for a special dividend announcement that could "represent positive catalysts down the road."

Shares of Costco have risen 4.2% this year, though the stock has pulled back 18% from its all-time closing high of $1,094.32 in May, when the retailer missed on adjusted earnings projections as part of another deceleration in membership growth.

Nardone said Costco's reliance on high-income consumers "gives us confidence" for its stock even as rising prices pressure shoppers. Traders also will be focused on whether Costco will reverse course with membership growth and if it unveils perks to attract new shoppers, Nardone wrote.

Earlier this year, the company lowered the price for many private label items sold under its Kirkland brand, and last week it started limiting the sale of its petroleum-based products.

Costco reports fourth-quarter earnings on Sept. 24.

Write to Ty Roush at tyler.roush@barrons.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 16, 2026 12:53 ET (16:53 GMT)