After a short-term strong breakout, gold prices remain volatile at high levels, while the supporting logic for long-term substitution remains solid.
智通财经2026/08/22 01:06Show original
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- Since August, international gold prices have broken out of the previous trading range, with London spot gold steadily rising from below $4,100 per ounce, successively breaking through multiple significant price levels and temporarily reaching above $4,600. Over the month, the cumulative increase exceeded 13%. However, during after-hours trading, gold prices slightly retreated below $4,600, and short-term high-level trading has become more intense.
- Industry insiders believe that this round of sharp increases is the result of multiple favorable factors resonating, such as cooling expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike, the evolution of geopolitical situations in the Middle East, and adjustments in US Treasury policies. Short-term upward momentum remains strong, but after a rapid rally, the market has a need for consolidation and digestion.
- In the medium term, gold prices may fluctuate repeatedly due to developments in geopolitical conflicts and changing expectations regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy. The short-term direction depends on further catalysts from economic data and geopolitical events, with risks of a pullback and potential for further gains coexisting.
- From a long-term perspective, frequent global geopolitical risks, persistent doubts about the US dollar’s creditworthiness, and the structural difficulties of resolving US debt issues continue to strengthen gold’s substitution effect for the US dollar, which will provide sufficient momentum for gold prices in the long run.
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