A Bold Call: SpaceX Stock Can Fall 25%. Here's Why. -- Barrons.com

By Al Root

SpaceX stock picked up a new bearish rating on Friday. It's all about the cash.

DZ Bank analyst Markus Leistner launched coverage of Elon Musk's rocket and artificial-intelligence company with a Sell rating and $100 price target, according to ratings aggregators. DZ Bank didn't immediately respond to a request for the full report.

That's a bold call. Wall Street is bullish about SpaceX stock. Three-quarters, or 75%, of analysts covering the company rate shares Buy. The average Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the S&P 500 typically ranges from 55% to 60%. The average analyst price target is about $226, 126% higher than Leistner's. That $126 gap amounts to roughly $1.7 trillion in market value.

Most SpaceX bulls see huge revenue growth over the coming few years. Sales in 2027 are expected to top $100 billion, up from about $44 billion in 2026, according to FactSet. Sales by the end of the decade are expected to top $760 billion.

That revenue, however, requires SpaceX to spend enormous sums putting AI and communications satellites into orbit. Wall Street projects some $800 billion in cumulative capital spending by the end of the decade, with SpaceX needing to raise hundreds of billions of dollars in debt and equity.

Most of the money will go into AI. It can cost $50 billion to build AI computers that need 1 gigawatt of electricity to run them. SpaceX currently operates about 1.4 gigawatts of compute at two terrestrial data centers. The company hopes to have 10 gigawatts by the end of 2027, with its long-term goals measured in the hundreds of gigawatts.

That will cost a lot. Of course, the potential reward is huge. Currently, a gigawatt of AI compute can be rented for up to $50 billion annually.

The new bearish rating isn't having a big impact on SpaceX stock. Shares were up 1.5% at $136 in premarket trading, while S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were both up about 0.3%.

Shares dipped 4.1% on Thursday as another 319 million shares held by insiders and early investors became available. Musk also said that SpaceX wouldn't try to catch the upper stage of the Starship rocket for months. That was a disappointment. Investors were hoping for a catch attempt in August.

Starship is SpaceX's huge, fully reusable rocket that when operational can drive down costs to reach space, enabling applications such as orbital AI data centers.

Coming into Friday, SpaceX shares had declined 4.3% for the week. SpaceX stock has been as high as $$225.64 and as low as $104.83. Currently, shares are close to their initial public offering price of $135.

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

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August 21, 2026 06:58 ET (10:58 GMT)