Ethereum holds above key support as ETF inflows rise, but whales stay cautious

Stability in major wallet holdings

Large Ethereum wallets, which typically exert considerable influence over market dynamics, showed only minor portfolio adjustments. Net flows to and from cryptocurrency exchanges remained almost unchanged, reflecting limited decisive activity from both buyers and sellers.

US-based spot Ethereum Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded improvements at the week’s outset, with Monday and Tuesday net inflows reaching $30.85 million and $71.47 million, respectively. This uptick in institutional purchases signaled some renewed interest, though broader American investor sentiment appeared to remain muted.

From a technical outlook, Ethereum’s price maintained a slightly bullish short-term stance, trading above its 20-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). However, the 100-day EMA and horizontal resistance at $1,961 continued to restrict further upward momentum.

Whale activity shows limited accumulation

Ethereum wallets holding between 10,000 and 100,000 coins — typically referred to as whales — saw net inflows of about 10,000 ETH over the previous week. This modest increase suggests large investors are not making major new commitments.

Addresses containing between 100 and 1,000 ETH, as well as those with 1,000 to 10,000 ETH, together distributed roughly 50,000 ETH. The restrained movement across key wallet groups indicated that pivotal market players continue to exhibit caution.

Analysts note that strong accumulation by whales often supports lasting price recoveries, whereas persistent distribution can pressure prices lower. At present, whale activity appears neutral, failing to clearly favor buyers or sellers.

Recent ETF inflows point to a gradual return of institutional demand, but this level remains below the selling pressure observed during the first half of the year. Furthermore, whale accumulation remains subdued, tempering the impact of positive developments.

Mini dictionary: Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a technical analysis indicator that gives more weight to recent price data and is commonly used to identify market trends and support or resistance levels.

Key technical signals and potential scenarios

Ethereum’s four-hour trading chart on the ETH/USD pair has retained a bullish structure, despite the market’s recent consolidation. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 59, which indicates reasonable upward momentum while remaining below overbought levels.

The Stochastic Oscillator, a momentum indicator that compares a security’s closing price to its price range over a specific period, is near 73. While this suggests upside momentum, the reading is nearing what many analysts would consider a moderately overbought zone, possibly limiting the scope for further immediate gains unless new buyers enter the market.

Mini dictionary: Stochastic Oscillator, a technical indicator used to assess momentum by comparing a particular closing price with a range of prices over a certain period.

The first notable resistance for Ethereum lies at $1,961, coinciding with the 100-day EMA. A clear move above this level is viewed as a potential catalyst for a further rally, targeting the next structural resistance at $2,172. Should the upward trend extend, $2,431 could be the subsequent target for bulls.

Conversely, the 20-day and 50-day EMAs provide immediate support between $1,870 and $1,889. If prices close below this range, sentiment could deteriorate, exposing levels at $1,809 and, with heavier selling, possibly as low as $1,507.

Technical momentum remains constructive, but Ethereum’s next move likely depends on whether institutional inflows accelerate and large holders shift from a cautious stance to more aggressive accumulation.