Soaring U.S. bond yields may undermine the dollar’s safe haven status, Rabobank warns of long-term erosion risks
智通财经2026/08/18 14:06Show original
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- Rabobank analyst Jane Foley pointed out that the continued sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields could have a negative spillover effect on the U.S. dollar. Currently, the U.S. Treasury market is under multiple pressures including concerns over fiscal deficits, persistent inflation, and competition from corporate debt supply.
- If selling pressure on U.S. Treasuries continues to intensify, its traditional status as a safe-haven asset may be put to the test, which would directly impact the U.S. dollar’s credibility as the world’s reserve currency.
- In theory, the U.S. dollar's dominance in the global payment system should sustain its safe-haven function. However, Foley cautions that the trend of de-dollarization is quietly advancing worldwide. While this is a slow process, it could gradually erode its monopolistic position over several decades.
- She warns that once the safe-haven attributes of the U.S. Treasury market weaken, the de-dollarization process could accelerate, putting the structural advantages of the dollar at risk of marginal weakening.
- On Tuesday, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield reached around 5.34%, the highest in 19 years, while the DXY U.S. Dollar Index remained steady near 99.6. The market is closely monitoring the impact of long-term interest rate movements on confidence in the dollar.
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